Pakistan faces biggest human flood since 1947

complete story: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=103987025

Thousands of civilians fled Pakistan's Swat Valley on Sunday after authorities briefly lifted a curfew. Pakistan's army said its war planes killed at least 180 Taliban militants within a 24-hour period in its all-out offensive in northwestern Swat Valley.

The army's casualty figures cannot be independently verified, but the U.N. warns that the fighting is producing one of the world's largest displacements of people. As they gather in makeshift camps, refugees' attitudes conflict about their plight and just who is responsible for the war that has driven them from their homes.

Across the district of Mardan, row upon neat row of tents is going up as the messy business of housing refugees from the conflict next door in Swat Valley picks up pace.

Swat Valley has become the epicenter of the power struggle between the militants and Pakistan forces. International aid agencies say 200,000 people have already escaped the widening conflict there. Another 300,000 are either on the move or trapped by the fighting.

Hundreds seeking help have overwhelmed the sprawling, century-old tuberculosis hospital that's turned into a receiving center in Mardan city. The new arrivals jostle each other in long lines. A full-throated official, or nazim, steps in as the heat bears down and patience wears thin. "It is our duty as Muslims to support you," he said to applause.

"Within two or three weeks you'll be back home and, God willing, those terrorists in the name of Taliban will be destroyed. Maximum three weeks."

read more ...

Parliamentary National Security Committee finalises strategy

The Parliamentary committee on National Security has finalised it's strategy with regards to National Security and terrorism. The committee was formed by a joint Govt. and Opposition resolution in National Assembly.

The committee is headed by Sen. Raza Rabbani, while members consist of all the ruling and opposition parties. It was announced by committee that they have reached a unanimous charter, only second time in the history of this military ruled and politically debacled country in 60 years, to counter external, but more importantly, internal threats.

The findings will be presented in National Assembly on 9th April and in Senate on 17th April, and made open for discussion in both the houses, and released to public.

It is widely speculated that, the new strategy's focal point is its toughened position on the infamous Drone Attacks. The drone attacks by NATO forces on Pakistan's tribal belt, bordering Afghanistan, is being viewed as a primary source of resentment of the locals against the Government of Pakistan, and has been a major motivational tool for the likes of Baitullah Mehsud, Mangal Bagh and Mulana Fazlullah's armed militia's, operating autonomously in the Tribal belt and adjoining areas.

Recently, all the major attacks, including the attacks on Sri Lankan Cricket team, the attack on Police Academy in Lahore and the attack on Paramilitary residential quarters in Islamabad have been cited as 'revenge' for the 'drone attacks' by the TTP leader, Baitullah Mehsood.

The biggest problem, for Government to reach an accord with locals for non-assistance to Taliban, have been these drone attacks. In the tribal belt, when a drone attacks the village of a particular tribe, and kills people belonging to the tribe, that tribe, according to the tribal traditions, takes it upon themselves to 'avenge' the death of their fellow tribesman. This is where the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) provides them with a platform to fight the 'agressors'. NATO forces, ( more commonly viewed as US forces) in Afghanistan, and Pakistan Army and Civilian Law and Order agencies as their helpers and co-conspirators in Pakistan.

Human Rights Commission of Pakistan has reported over 4000 deaths in past few years, not including the death toll of Army, militants, and those killed in Drone Attacks. Add to it the AFP and other independednt news aganecies reported toll of over 350 people killed by drone attacks, in 2008 alone.

While the death toll is humungous, the Pakistan Govt. from the out-set during the Bush administration has been meekish in objecting to drone attacks. Gen. Musharraf's government, not once raised the question of drone attacks on official forums. Things, however, are now shaping up, especially when US envoy Richard Holbrooke is here.

A common person in Pakistan views these strikes as a violation of Nation's sovereignty., an issue most people are sensitive to in their psychological make up. That view is now being represented by the National Assembly. It fans more anti-American sentiments, and makes the Govt. position difficult to openly acknlowdge the threat of extremeists and devise and persue a counter strategy.

While drone attacks have been effective in killing their main targets i.e. high valued Taliban commanders i.e. Commander Naik Mohammad of Waziristan, and the foreigners(Chechen, Uzbek and Arabs) aiding Taliban,but the collateral they bring with them is huge. Only today a suspected Drone attack in a busy Waziristan market, fired a missile on a car parked outside shops. four people including two suspected Taliban and a shopper were killed, while another 4 shop keepers and shoppers were injured. In 2007, a suspected drone missile strike on a religious seminary killed more than 250 people in Bajaur.

Insurgency in Swat - An analysis

Here's an analysis of the Swat situation by Abdullah Saad (http://abdullahsaad.com), a must read:

Part 1, Part 2

Who is responsible for assisting immigrants from tribal areas?

Excerpt from Urooj Zia's story in The News (http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=153180 )


Hundreds and thousands of war affected people from FATA have poured into Karachi in recent months. Many still live with relatives or friends already settled in Karachi. Twelve-year-old Hakim, his six siblings ranging in age from five to 16, his parents and his 78-year-old grandfather, Hikmat, are among them.

Three months ago, the biggest problem in Hakim's life was trying to not get beaten up by his teacher. He was learning the Qura'an by heart at his local mosque, which also doubled as a Madressah in his village near Waziristan. Today, Hakim polishes shoes for a living at a park near his temporary home in Karachi. When business is slow, he begs, as do his siblings and his
grandfather.

"Somewhere around the end of summer, fliers rained down on us from the Pakistan Army aeroplanes. The imam from the mosque said that the fliers were telling us to pack up and leave within six hours, because they would bomb our village," Hakim said. He doesn't know who 'they' are, or why his village was going to be bombed. "We gathered up everything, and left in large trucks. We had heard stories about people who died in other villages because they did not leave when told to do so."

The family came to Hakim's distant uncle in Karachi. This 'uncle' can more appropriately be described as someone who lived in the same village as Hakim's family. Around 40 people from the village came to his house and stayed there for three weeks, before moving in with other Pukhtoon families in the area. Hakim's family of 10, including his parents, however, still live at his 'uncle's' house. The latter already had four children of his own, and the house is actually a mud room in one of the slums around SITE. The small space is divided into a kitchen area and an enclosure for a restroom.

Prior to this move, Hikmat had never set foot outside his village. His son herded goats, which had to be left behind when the family fled. He gained employment a month-and-a-half ago at a local textile mill in Karachi. "My uncle took my father to the Thekedaar (contractor) for this factory, and he hired him," Hakim said.

"My husband hasn't been paid since he joined," Hakim's mother told The News. "He works two shifts at the factory. They said they would pay him last month. Then they said they'll pay him this month. When he protests, they threaten to throw him out, but what would he do if he loses this job? Right now we make ends meet with the money the children bring in."

Hakim's father's story is not unique. While a majority of the people that came to Karachi from FATA have taken to begging – especially old people and children – many of the able-bodied young men have taken up work in the industrial areas of Karachi.

The turnover of labour in these areas is generally extremely high, primarily due to the Thekedaari Nizaam or the contractual system. One person is chosen by the owner of a factory to recruit labour informally for the organisation. These workers are not listed as part of the factory in official labour department reviews, and are open to exploitation – especially immigrants
from FATA.

Almost none of these people had been paid since they joined, and were too scared to protest or quit for fear of losing their jobs and not being able to find another.

Many work multiple shifts, and rest at nearby parks during breaks. "I don't go home because the rooms are already so crowded," said Nihal, a worker at a construction site. "I'd rather just try and get some sleep in this park here, before getting back to work again in an hour."

Meanwhile, the Sindh Labour Department maintains that it has not received complaints regarding the exploitation of these workers. "We can only take action if these workers come up to us and complain," provincial Labour Minister Amir Nawab said. "Once we receive complaints, we constitute an inquiry commission, and try to rectify their grievances. If this does not work, we issue a notice, and then take the matter up as per the law."

"They should unionise and fight for their rights," he said. The children of these families, meanwhile, have taken to either shoe-polishing, selling sugarcane (ganderi) at signals, or begging. Many children who The News spoke to said that "back home" they had been enrolled at local mosques-cum-madressahs where they learnt to read the Qura'an. None of them have set foot inside a school ever since they came to Karachi. Hakim wants to be a Qura'an teacher when he grows up, and is looking forward to getting back to his studies again.

The families, however, have no idea as to when they will be able to go back to their villages, or what to expect when they return. "I don't think anything is left behind there," Hakim's mother said. "We heard of other villages while we were back home. Nothing was left behind there except
rubble. What makes you think our village will be any different?"

The blame game is on! South Asia walking on a thin line,once again!

The fabled 'foreign hand' is behind the recent bloodbath in Mumbai, once again South Asian politicians use this time tested term. I wonder why is it used so fluently and why do we, the people on the both sides of the border, buy it on a regular basis ?

It was only a few days ago that I commented on a blog run by an Indian blogger that

" for the first time in our lives we see that less and less Indian films are being made with anti Pakistan propoganda, & even lesser anti-India sentiments in the 50 plus Pakistani TV channels. When Jammat-i-Islami and Pakistani Maulana's on the one side and BJP and the likes on the other are not airing anti-Indian sentiments, when our PM or President is not playing the 'Indian'/'Pakistan' card anymore, when TV,papers, blogs have nuetral stance towards towards each other, it definitely means things are getting humane, and once can hope for the best. "

But I am afraid, the blame game started in the after math of tragic Mumbai terrorist attacks is taking the whole of South Asia back to square one. As if this region and the two countries did not had internal problems of high magnitude already, I worry that we may be drawn, yet again, to the cross border fueds, verbal and actual.

I do not know what the Impression of Pakistan and Pakistani people is in India, but one thing is for certain that there never has been a hate activity from the civil society of the both countries. There always were the hawkish politicians, religious right wingers, conservative newspapers, short sighted media producers which made being patriotic in lieu with being anit-Indian or anti-Pakistani.

The recent events with which the Mumbaikers had to go through, were certainly targeted towards, terrifying and intimidating them in specific & Indian population in general. It has probably hit the Indian society where it is most fragile, the ethnic religious divide. It is now known that the terrorist were of Muslim origin, a couple of them of Pakistani origin. Demolition of Babri Mosque, Killing of Indira Gandhi, Burning of Hindu pilgrim trains have already led to unrest and carnage of huge proportions.

If possible, I would just like to convey my condolence to citizens of Mumbai, that we condemn these attacks. People in Pakistan do not approve of it, and neither do they are celebrating. The effort current Pakistani government is making, is to send out a message that Pakistan on official or public level is not involved in it, at all. If some high wired self proclaimed righteous group has used Pakistani soil to do this, lets find them and bring them to justice together. We are trying to cope up with this menace as well.

The 'foreign hand' has in past and might as well in future find itself used on the both sides of the border. One thing is for sure, it helps politicians on the both sides to cover their tracks. It helps conceal their inability to counter these problems. Nawab Akbar Bugti, a nationalist Balouch Sardaar, was killed in Baluchistan and military found a few thousand dollars in cash lying there besides him, clearly indicating he was an 'agent' of the 'foreign elements'!

I remember the view of certain government functionaries and pro-government reporters regarding the resurrection of Student movement in aftermath of Nov. 3. It was stated that the 'foreign element' was active in instigating the students to protest against the Musharraf Govt. We laughed our tails of at this comment.

Pakistani people have been a victim of violent activities from a long time. Sometimes at the hand of its own military, the Dhaka Medical College massacre in 1954, 'operation search light' in current day Bangladesh in 1969, Military operation in Baluchistan 1974, Military operation in Sindh 1994, The current military operation in Baluchistan and tribal areas since 2001. And sometimes at the hands of terrorist activities that have shaken the already fragile social fiber of this nation i.e. one after the other serial bomb blasts in Peshawar and adjoining areas during more than a decade of Afghan war, the heightened sectarian violence of late 1980's and early 1990's, the unrest and communal motivated violence in Karachi for most of mid 90's and then came the grand 'war on terror' and we were on the receiving end of a continuous salvo of suicide and car bombings. The painful ordeal of People in Swat, the unrest in tribal areas, bombings in Islamabad and Lahore.

So with all our previous experiences with similar incidents, we can, to an extent, realize what people in India might be going through. Whenever a tragedy like this strikes a nation, it shifts to an aggressive stance, politicians, in order to thwart the pressure upon them and to convey a message that something is being done are quick to blame it on the 'foreign hand', we have been a victim to this term before, I hope that this time around we don't fall prey to it. Because if we do, we are back to the hate culture that was bubbled down in the past decade, and that could be a biggest obstacle in progress, that more than a quarter of the world's population living in South Asia requires to survive.

Shocking Mumbai terror attacks : Oberoi , Taj Mahal Hotel & Chabad (Nariman) House secured

The world witnessed one of a kind terrorist activity in Mumbai, india. Painfully shocking and equally baffling attacks led to over 160 deaths and hundreds injured. From RiseOfPakistan blog team, LUMS students & Alumni, and Pakistani' s in general we console the families of the dead and the citizens of Mumbai. The heinous terrorist attacks aimed at destroying the urban fibre of one of the bigget and busiest cities in the world, and certainly to terrify and intimidate soon to be most populace nation, are tragic, deplorable and condemnable.

No city can probably brace for such an organised and disruptive activity. Mumbaikers as well as us watching the tragedy unfold on TV, were no doubt shocked beyond imagination. It's a sigh of relief to know that, finally, the painful ordeal is over.

Brought up in Karachi during troubled 90's and being in Lahore/Islamabad during the current wave of terror attacks, one can relate to what the Mumbaikers went through. It was certainly harsh and terrifying. If compared, hat happenned in Mumbai, to what our cities had been through, this single incident probably surpasses any individual terrorist activity. I just hope that its the end of this kind of experience for the people on the other side of the border, and they dont go through the continous and serial attacks that we are going through these days.

Endless War? Why winning is for losers.

source: piece by David Kell on www.e-ir.info

The magical thinking behind the ‘war on terror’ has allowed a radical disconnect between problem and solution - most glaringly, between 9/11 and attacking Iraq. Hannah Arendt noted in The Origins of Totalitarianism that it can be very attractive when leaders offer solutions with a degree of certainty; the illogical nature of the proposed ’solution’ (for example, eliminating the Jews as a remedy for Germany’s military and economic problems) does not necessarily make it any less attractive. Arendt also noted that the need for certainty may be particularly intense in circumstances where people’s own economic and social circumstances are precarious; she suggested that part of the appeal of fascism was that the identification of a clearly-identified enemy - whilst frightening - was less frightening and less disorienting than a world in which the source of insecurity remained obscure.

That analysis resonates today. In his book What’s the matter with Kansas?, Thomas Frank provides a revealing case-study of how economic insecurity has fed into support for Bush and for right-wing politicians more generally. Frank argues that in Kansas (and, by extension, much of middle America), a longstanding hostility towards big corporations has been displaced into a ‘backlash’ politics that includes hostility towards foreign enemies, towards a range of ‘outgroups’, and towards the forces (like science, evolution, secularism and pluralism) that seem to undermine old and comfortable certainties. read complete post .....

Invasion of terror

By Babar Sattar

The debate on Pakistan's security policy that lists the country's available options as refusing to function as America's foot soldier in the war on terror versus willingly fighting America's war in our tribal areas is simplistic and misleading. There is no gainsaying that Pakistan needs to fight its own fight against extremism. But that must be distinguished from the US war on terror in Afghanistan, the paramount objective of which is to attack and decapitate Al-Qaeda and Taliban in a manner that they are unable to execute attack on western soil. And if the war strategy results in destabilizing Pakistan or delaying the possibility of peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan, that could be acceptable damage for the United States. Pakistan's war on extremism, on the contrary, needs to focus on curbing the drift of portions of its own population to extremist ideologies that manifest themselves in the form of indiscriminate violence, undermine the life and liberties of moderate citizens and threaten the writ of the state.

The Bush Administration's war strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan's tribal areas is not working. The Musharraf regime has been a loyal ally to the Bush Administration, but the alliance has had a deleterious impact on Pakistan's internal security situation. The actions of the militants against the state and the citizens of Pakistan are immoral and completely unjustifiable. But in allying itself closely with the US, the Pakistani state and the armed forces have come to be seen as stooges of the west, which have cost them their credibility and moral authority as agents and representatives of the people of Pakistan. Pakistan must realize that its slavish pursuit of the US diktat vis-à-vis the war on terror has become an obstacle in the way of waging an effective war against extremism within Pakistan.

As a matter of foreign policy, Pakistan needs to distance itself from the US war on terror. So long as the Pakistani state, its armed forces and law enforcing agencies are fighting what is largely perceived as an alien war, there will be no popular support for such an effort. But redefining the foreign policy will have to be accompanied with (i) de-legitimization of the role played by jihadi outfits in our security policy and military strategy, (ii) reform of the decision-making mechanisms that produce such policies, (iii) overhaul of the state political structure that supports vital policies that have no popular mandate and denies minority groups a stake in the system, and (iv) addressing the brand of thinking and ideology that justifies violence and suicide attacks against fellow Muslims in the name of Islam.

Ashley Tellis -- senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace -- recently made a statement before a US congressional subcommittee wherein Pakistan's current approach toward extremist groups was elaborated, among other things. In our present context, at least this portion of the statement merits to be quoted at length: "As things stand today, it is possible to identify five distinct extremist groups that ought to be the legitimate target of Pakistani law enforcement and military operations: (i) sectarian groups, such as the Sunni Sipah-e-Sahaba and the Shia Tehrik-e-Jafria, which are engaged in violence within Pakistan; (ii) anti-Indian terrorist groups that operate with Pakistani military and ISI support, such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba, the Jaish-e-Mohammed, and the Harkat ul-Mujahideen; (iii) the Pakistani 'Taliban' groups, consisting of the extremist outfits in the FATA, led by individuals such as Baitullah Mehsud in South Waziristan, Maulana Faqir Muhammad and Maulana Qazi Fazlullah of the Tehrik-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Muhammad, and Mangal Bagh Afridi of the Lashkar-e-Islami in the Khyber Agency; (iv) the original Taliban movement and especially its Kandahari leadership centred around Mullah Mohammad Omar and believed to be now resident in Quetta; and, finally, (v) Al-Qaeda and its affiliates, meaning the non-South Asian terrorists currently ensconced in the FATA region.

"Since September 2001, President Musharraf has pursued a highly differentiated counterterrorism policy that has involved treating each of these targets differently. He systematically suppressed mainly those domestic terrorist groups like the Sunni Sipah-e- Sahaba and the Shia Tehrik-e-Jafria that had engaged in bloody internal sectarian violence but, more importantly, had subverted critical state objectives. By contrast, he largely ignored the terrorist outfits operating against India in Kashmir and elsewhere: although he has controlled their infiltration into Kashmir in recent years, this restraint has not extended to either abandoning or eliminating them in the manner witnessed, for example, in the case of the more virulent anti-national sectarian entities operating within Pakistan. Fearful of Washington's disfavour, Musharraf has attacked Al-Qaeda resolutely, if not always effectively. Although the Pakistani Taliban did not exist as realistic threats in 2001, Musharraf has also combated them vigorously and as best he can. Musharraf has approached the original Taliban in a manner more akin to the Kashmiri terrorists and has avoided targeting them comprehensively; he has especially overlooked their leadership now resident in and around Quetta."

If this information and analysis is accurate, it identifies a crucial flaw in our security planning: the patrons of our security policy continue to believe that militant groups can be recruited and relied upon to realize the state's strategic goals and further that they can be clustered in neat compartments and accorded disparate treatment. There are at least three fatal flaws in this mode of thinking. One, experience suggests that the jihadi project was misconceived since its inception: non-state actors harnessed in the name of religion might function as effective tools for a while, but they eventually acquire a mind of their own and cannot be decommissioned or reprogrammed when the goals or the strategy of the state change.

Two, in the contemporary world there is zero tolerance for non-state actors. Thus in theory it might make sense to keep the possibility of our erstwhile foreign policy vis-à-vis Kashmir and Afghanistan (with a role of 'mujahideen') alive, nurturing or tolerating any dormant jihadi cells can only have disastrous consequences for the country. Three, the possibility of connections between various militant groups cannot be ruled out even when they are pursuing different goals. For the underlying narrow-minded religious ideology used to induct and brainwash these zealots, that preaches violence and relies on hate mongering, is a shared heritage of all such groups.

While Pakistan has been the frontline state in the war on terror, there is not one popular political entity in the country that backs this war, not even the king's league. We have had a parliament for the past five years, that has had no role in devising Pakistan's policy vis-à-vis the biggest strategic and internal security challenge facing the country. In 2006 the whole world was debating whether reconciliation and peace deals with the local tribes was a good idea, except Pakistan's 'sovereign' parliament. The consequence of a one-man decision-making arrangement is that our armed forces are fighting a war that is neither supported by the nation nor regarded as just. There is no political party that has had to publicly defend this war and thus there is not even an informed debate in the country regarding its pros and cons and the alternatives that Pakistan could pursue.

Winning the war against extremism is not going to be easy. Once we begin to think about our problem of extremism in isolation from the war on terror, there are some tough decisions we must make: we must abandon our jihadi enterprise; we must undertake madressah reform boldly and deliberately; and we must provide security, freedom and public space to the intellectuals and scholars who are capable of challenging bigoted ideologies pandered in the name of religion and confront the ideological roots of violence. But none of this can happen so long as our security policy continues to be made by a handful of individuals who are neither representative of the popular will nor accountable to it. We thus need to start by ensuring that the country pursues a security and foreign policy that is backed by popular mandate. And to that end we need to make our parliament relevant once again.